Article: Which media landscape in 2020? “Barbarian invasions”, second season: Digital dictatorship

By Bertrand BEAUDICHON*, Alain BUSSON** and Chrystèle BAZIN***

* Vice-president of Omnicom Media Group, president of Union des Entreprises de Conseil et d’Achat Média (UDECAM);
** Professor at HEC;
*** Freelance consultant on digital media.

Abstract

Since 2010, UDECAM (Union des Entreprises de Conseil et d’Achat Média) has associated with HEC to release a prospective study on the media landscape in 2020: Le Paysage Média en 2020. At a time when the mass media are in the throes of the digital revolution, two alternatives have been presented of the future. Under the first scenario called “Barbarian invasions”, digital revolutionaries seize power and do away with the players and rules from the old order. Under the second script, “The empire counter-attacks”, traditional media keep control over content and preserve their power, but must deeply alter their business models. Neither of these is being fully played out. The digital revolution has permeated all previous media but has wiped none out. It is not everything, it is in everything. The predicted invasion has taken place, but “invaders” and ”empire” have struck a new balance. Given the speed of technological innovations and their adoption by consumers, what is important is not to precisely foresee micro-changes but, instead, to have set up a system of measurement for detecting them. In effect, any small change might soon swell into a major factor; and ultimately, consumers decide. This analysis of the current situation with its strong trends draws a deliberately “typical” sketch of the media landscape in 2020.